Improving Hurricane Boundary Layer Parameterization Scheme Based on Observations

Flight-level data and global positioning system dropwindsonde observations collected from more than 187 flights into 19 tropical cyclones were used to examine why different planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes applied hurricane models produce diverse forecasts of structure intensity change. Two popular, yet diverse, physics schemes, namely, the GFS K-Profile a 1.5-order turbulence kinetic energy closure NOAA's next-generation FV3-based Hurricane Analysis Forecast System used. It was found that uncertainty related some key variables in eddy diffusivity, Km, led solutions. For given grid resolution, both converged similar forecast state provided those uncertainties could be identified improved based on observations. This is important for providing generalized framework development evaluation operational resemble reality. study also indicates shape Km profile equally as its maximum value. The smaller near surface, stronger inflow layer.